An op-ed by Prassenjit Lahiri
As the exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections unfold, they reveal a story of continuity and a decisive mandate for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These polls predict a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), forecasting a commanding majority of 355 to 370 seats. In stark contrast, the Opposition-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc is anticipated to secure a meager 125 to 140 seats. Should these projections materialize on June 4th, it would mark an unprecedented third consecutive term for the BJP, a historic achievement underscoring the electorate’s preference for stability and sustained governance.
The BJP’s potential triumph extends beyond traditional strongholds, indicating significant inroads into Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and a robust performance against regional powerhouses in Odisha, West Bengal, and Telangana. Notably, as regional party vote shares diminish, the BJP appears to be the primary beneficiary, not the Congress. This shift points to a broader trend: the BJP’s growing appeal as a national party capable of addressing local and national issues effectively.
The Opposition’s Freebie Trap
Central to the Opposition’s dwindling fortunes is their reliance on unsustainable freebies. The Congress party’s manifestos have been laden with promises that, while appealing, have proven fiscally untenable. The promise of free bus rides in Telangana, for instance, has exacerbated the financial woes of the already struggling Telangana State Road Transport Corporation (TSRTC), while also negatively impacting the Hyderabad Metro’s occupancy rates. Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress government’s five poll guarantees have become a significant financial burden, with economic adviser Basavaraj Rayareddi highlighting the earmarking of Rs 58,000 crore for these schemes. These examples illustrate the broader issue: the principal opposition’s failure to present a viable, sustainable model for governance.
In contrast, the BJP has capitalized on these failures, presenting itself as a more reliable and effective alternative. The electorate, disillusioned by the Opposition’s broken promises and fiscal mismanagement, is increasingly turning to the BJP in search of stability and sustainable development.
Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: The BJP’s Winning Formula
The BJP’s strong performance in poverty-stricken states highlights the effectiveness of their policies aimed at economic growth and poverty reduction. The term BIMARU, coined by demographer Ashish Bose, once encapsulated the developmental challenges of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Although West Bengal and Odisha were not included in this list, they continue to grapple with high poverty levels. Recent data from the UNDP’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and a NITI Aayog Discussion Paper reveal remarkable progress in these states over the past decade. Uttar Pradesh, for instance, saw a reduction of 593.69 lakh in poverty, Bihar 377.09 lakh, Madhya Pradesh 230.00 lakh, West Bengal 172.18 lakh, and Odisha 102.78 lakh.
These improvements reflect the Union government’s successful initiatives, such as the Swachh Bharat Mission, Ujjwala Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, Poshan Abhiyaan, and the Jal Jeevan Mission. These programs have significantly improved health, education, and living standards, lifting millions out of poverty and laying the foundation for a more prosperous society.
India’s New Welfarism: Empowerment Over Handouts
This election, if the exit polls are accurate, would also signal a resounding endorsement of India’s New Welfarism model. This approach, rooted in empowerment rather than dependency, integrates insights from development economics and social policy to enhance individual and collective capabilities. Drawing on Amartya Sen’s capability approach, New Welfarism emphasizes expanding the freedoms people have to lead lives they value.
Rather than relying on temporary relief through handouts, New Welfarism equips citizens with essential resources and opportunities, fostering long-term socio-economic mobility. Programs like the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, which promotes financial inclusion, and the Ujjwala Yojana, which improves health outcomes and reduces time poverty for women, exemplify this model. The Saubhagya scheme, which electrifies households, further enhances quality of life and productivity.
These initiatives reflect the concept of “asset-based welfare,” providing assets that offer sustainable improvements in well-being. Additionally, the Aadhaar-enabled direct benefit transfer system enhances efficiency and transparency, ensuring that benefits reach intended recipients directly, aligning with principles of good governance.
A New Political Paradigm
The anticipated electoral outcome could redefine the contours of Indian politics, setting a precedent for future administrations to prioritize sustainable, inclusive growth. This shift from traditional welfare approaches to empowerment-based policies underscores a significant evolution in governance.
The BJP’s success in securing a third consecutive term would not merely be a political victory but a validation of a governance model that prioritizes long-term development and fiscal responsibility over short-term populism. This approach has evidently resonated with the electorate, particularly in states with high poverty levels, where tangible improvements in living standards have translated into electoral support.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
While the BJP’s anticipated victory is a testament to their effective governance, it also comes with its set of challenges. Sustaining the momentum of economic growth and poverty reduction in a diverse and populous nation like India requires continuous innovation and robust policy frameworks. The focus must remain on inclusive growth, ensuring that the benefits of development reach all sections of society.
Moreover, the BJP’s expansion into new territories like Kerala and Tamil Nadu presents both opportunities and challenges. These states have unique socio-political landscapes, and the BJP will need to tailor its strategies to address local issues effectively while maintaining its broader national vision.
A Historic Mandate for Stability and Progress
As we await the final results today, the exit polls suggest that the Indian electorate is poised to deliver a historic mandate for continuity and stability under Narendra Modi’s leadership. The BJP’s emphasis on sustainable development, fiscal responsibility, and empowerment-based welfare has struck a chord with voters across the nation.
This potential victory is not just a testament to Modi’s leadership but also a reflection of the electorate’s desire for a governance model that prioritizes long-term growth and stability over short-term populism. The anticipated triumph of the BJP-led NDA marks a significant milestone in Indian politics, setting the stage for a new era of development and governance.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are likely to be remembered as a watershed moment in Indian politics, reaffirming the electorate’s faith in the BJP’s vision for a prosperous and equitable India. As the nation moves forward, the focus must remain on sustaining the momentum of progress and ensuring that the benefits of development are enjoyed by all.